After 16 rounds, McLaren holds a commanding 617 points to Ferrari’s 280, a gap of 337. With eight races left and a maximum of 389 points still available, that advantage will become unassailable if the team outscores Ferrari by nine points or more on Sunday.
A title at Baku would mark McLaren’s second consecutive constructors’ crown and 10th overall, moving the team into outright second on the all-time list behind Ferrari’s 16.
It would also be the earliest a constructors’ title has ever been secured, coming with seven races to spare and eclipsing Red Bull’s benchmark of six to spare set in 2023.
The simplest route to the championship is a repeat of their season-long dominance. A race win combined with a second- or third-place finish would put the result beyond doubt, regardless of Ferrari’s performance.
McLaren has already claimed 12 victories and seven one-two finishes this year, making another double podium a realistic expectation.
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Mercedes and Red Bull remain mathematical contenders but face even steeper odds.
Mercedes trails by 357 points and must outscore McLaren by 12 to stay alive, while Red Bull sits 378 points back and needs to claw back 33 points – a scenario that would require a double podium and a rare scoreless weekend for McLaren.
The papaya squad has not failed to score since the 2023 Canadian Grand Prix, a streak spanning 54 races.
Clinching the title at Baku would underline one of the most commanding seasons in F1 history and secure McLaren the largest share of the sport’s prize pool, worth an estimated $90 million based on current revenues.
Even if the championship remains open beyond Azerbaijan, McLaren’s overwhelming lead means a second successive crown would be virtually assured at the next round in Singapore.
For now, all eyes are on Baku, where the papaya team can cap a season of relentless dominance with an early place in the record books.
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